RADIO HABANA CUBA SOLAR 10-day forcast
10-Day Solar ForecastMay 1, 1998
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May 1, 1998Here are excerpts from the 10 day forcast. Active regions of the sun are rotating back into view, so we should see more flux, better propagation, and, more flares! So, more unpredictable storming!
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
|10.7 cm|HF Propagation +/- CON| Mag| Aurora |
|SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|----|--------|
May 01| 106 |VG G F F 50 -05 70|3 15|NV LO MO|
02| 108 | G F VP VP 50 -25 60|6 30|NV MO HI|
03| 110 | G F P P 50 -15 60|4 18|NV LO MO|
04| 111 |VG G P F 50 -05 65|3 12|NV NV MO|
05| 112 |VG G F F 50 00 65|2 10|NV NV LO|
06| 112 |VG G F F 50 00 60|2 08|NV NV LO|
07| 114 |VG G F F 55 00 55|2 08|NV NV LO|
08| 120 |VG VG F F 55 +05 55|2 10|NV NV LO|
09| 122 |VG VG F F 55 +05 55|2 10|NV NV LO|
10| 121 |VG VG F F 55 +10 55|2 08|NV NV LO|
Explanatory Notes:This table shows the predictions for most of the critical parameters, in terse format. First column is the date. Second column is the predicted solar flux for the next 10 days. Third through sixth columns represent predicted HF radio propagation conditions for the LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar latitude paths, where BO represents BlackOut conditions (essentially useless propagation), VP represents Very Poor conditions, P represents Poor conditions, F means Fair conditions, G is Good (normal) propagation, and VG is Very Good conditions. The seventh column shows the probability of daylit circuits being affected by flare-induced short wave fadeouts. The eigth column shows the predicted global MUF level as a percentage above or below expected normal levels (ex. +10 means the MUF on that date could be 10 percent ABOVE-NORMAL, whereas a 00 means the MUF should remain at normal levels). The ninth column is the confidence that the forecasts for the given date are accurate (100 means the forecasts will be 100 percent accurate, and 50 means there is a 50 percent chance the forecast will be accurate). The tenth column shows the predicted peak planetary geomagnetic K-index for the given day. The eleventh column shows the predicted 24-hour planetary geomagnetic A-index.
PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (01 MAY - 10 MAY)
_____________________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH
| VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH
| SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE
| MAJOR STORM | | * | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD
| MINOR STORM | |** | * | | | | | | | | LOW
| VERY ACTIVE | |***|** | | | | | | | | NONE
| ACTIVE | **|***|***| * | | | | | | | NONE
| UNSETTLED |***|***|***|***|** |** |** |***|***|** | NONE
| QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE
| VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE
|-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------
| Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly
| Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity
|________________________________________________________________
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 60%
DISCUSSION:The anticipated impact of a fairly large coronal mass ejection on or near 02 May that was associated with the major class M6/3B tenflare of 29 April is expected to dominate the first half of the forecast period. Periods of minor to major storming could accompany this disturbance. The rest of the forecast period will depend on the behaviour of active region 8210 and developing active Region 8214. Additional coronal mass ejections are very possible over the next week, which could alter the accuracy of this forecast.
Arnie Coro
Host of Dxers Unlimited
Havana, Cuba
01 May, 1998
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